000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE S OF EL SALVADOR ALONG 89W MOVING W 15 KT.  NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER THE E 
PACIFIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AT THE NORTHERN 
END OF THE WAVE OVER THE W PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W MOVING W 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 
THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ. WAVE IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN IN ELY SHEAR ALOFT WHICH WOULD LIMIT ITS CHANCES FOR 
DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE RE-LOCATED ALONG 117W/118W WITH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR
17N118W MOVING W 10-12 KT. POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE 
LOW MAY ACTUALLY BE ELLIPTICALLY ORIENTED ALONG A WSW-ENE AXIS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE LOW AND 
SHEARED TO THE WSW WITHIN 150 NM IN THE W QUADRANT. SYSTEM 
REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG ELY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS 
EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THOUGH ANY 
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED BY COOL SSTS NW OF THE SYSTEM.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...8N78W 13N101W 11N108W 14N115W 
12N124W 16N133W 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 120-150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 84W...WITHIN 120-150 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 106W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 22N138W REMAINS IN THE 
SAME LOCATION AS 24 HOURS AGO AND DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 130W.  
SHEARED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 20N ALONG 129W/130W TRAPPED 
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO. 
RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO BLOCKS TROUGH FROM FURTHER EWD ADVANCE.
AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE...RIDGE SHOULD BUILD WWD
AND MERGE WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE ALONG 138W.  
 
BROAD ENE FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E PACIFIC ADVECTING 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS WWD.  
 
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGE WELL N OF AREA PRODUCING 
MODERATE TRADES N OF 14N W OF 130W.  CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL 
MOVING N INTO E PAC S OF 8N FROM 95W-110W THEN EXPANDS TO 120W
IN 24-36 HOURS. 

$$
COBB