000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031615
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE S OF HONDURAS ALONG 87W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOUNTAINS 
SHOULD DIMINISH AS WAVE MOVES W.  DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT N OF 14N 
SHOULD HINDER ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AXIS OR RESTRICT 
IT TO ITS SRN PORTIONS.  NO ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME NOR 
EXPECTED WITHIN NEXT 24-48 HRS. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W MOVING W 15 KT.  SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION E OF WAVE AXIS WITHIN 120 NM OF MEXICAN COAST 
EXPECTED TO SIMMER AS WAVE MOVES W...BUT WAVE WOULD THEN 
ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND DECREASE OF
ELY SHEAR WHICH COULD SLOWLY ENHANCE ITS CONVECTION AND 
ORGANIZATION.   

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W MOVING W 10 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF 15N119W.  CYCLONIC 
ROTATION AT MID LEVELS NOTED AND VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
ALOFT MAKES THIS WAVE A CANDIDATE FOR SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT...
NEVERTHELESS COOL SST NW OF SYSTEM CURTAILS POSSIBILITY OF 
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AFTER TWO-THREE DAYS.   

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...10N88W  13N105W  16N115W  13N125W 
13N132W  10N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 12N FROM 
95W TO 101W.  SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 80 NM OF 17N119W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 15N118W.  

...DISCUSSION...
MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 20N140W MAINTAINS IT 
POSITION SINCE YESTERDAY WITH DRY AIR MASS THE MAIN EVENT N OF 
ITCZ W OF 125W.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH TRAPPED 
BETWEEN THAT RIDGE AND SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO.
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BLOCKS TROUGH FROM FURTHER EWD ADVANCED BUT HAS 
ALLOWED SOME...UNEXPECTED...SWD INTRUSION.  STILL AS THE UPPER 
SHORTWAVE RACES NE...IT SHOULD WEAKEN LONGWAVE TROUGH GRIP AND 
LET IT RIDE NE ALSO ALLOWING SECOND UPPER RIDGE TO REBUILD W. 

IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER TROUGH MAKING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
ALOFT BY PROVIDING MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCING CONVECTION 
FOR TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 119W. AS TROUGH SHIFTS NE THIS 
INFLUENCE DECREASES AND DEVELOPMENT OF WAVE...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE 
...IS CURTAILED.   

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGE WELL N OF AREA PRODUCING 
MODERATE TRADES N OF 14N W OF 130W.  CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL 
MOVING N INTO E PAC S OF 8N FROM 95W-110W THEN EXPAND TO 120W.

$$
WALLY BARNES