000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERICK IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 128.6W AT 0300 UTC 
WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 AND MOVING WEST AT 10 
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ERICK 
CONTINUES TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF EASTERLY SHEAR AND WILL BE 
STEERED WESTWARD BY A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE 
SYSTEM. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM 
OF CENTER EXCEPT WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE SW QUADRANT.  SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 
KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 113W FROM 7N TO 20N AND IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR 
ALOFT COVERS THE AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE 
WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
LOCATED TWO TO THREE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THERE ARE SIGNS OF WEAK ROTATION IN THE CLOUD PATTERN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...6N77W 8N95W 12N110W 12N120W 8N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF 7.7N81.9W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45 NM OF 12.3N110.9W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF 14.3N115.6W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WITHIN AREA NORTH OF A LINE 
32N120W 23N128W 23N135W 32N130W.  THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE AND DRY 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 114W TO A LINE 
THROUGH 32N115W 20N120W TO NEAR ERICK. THIS AREA IS ALSO DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 

EXCEPT FOR UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERICK THE AREA 
IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WEST OF 
115W AND ALSO IN THE AREA SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.

WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR 
ERICK WEAK TROUGH IS OBSERVED.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 113W.

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LL