000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011554 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED AUG 01 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERICK IS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 126.0W AT 1500 UTC WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 AND MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ERICK CONTINUES TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF EASTERLY SHEAR AND WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 12.5N127W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 111W/112W FROM 5N TO 19N AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED TWO TO THREE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N83W 9N91W 14N111W 13N125W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 5N77W 8N85W 10N91W 9N98W 15N108W AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 18N... A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 128W N OF 25N AND IS DRIFTING E. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA W OF THE AXIS TO 134W AND E OF THE AXIS TO 122W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT IS LOCATED S OF THE TROUGH TO 18N BETWEEN 115W AND 140W. S OF 18N... EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 18N EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS S OF ABOUT 5N E OF 95W TO THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST. THE EASTERLIES ARE STRONGEST NEAR TROPICAL STORM ERICK WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. $$ CAB