000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010939
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERICK IS NEAR 13.0N 125.2W AT 0900 UTC WITH A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MOVING W 9 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ERICK CONTINUES 
TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF EASTERLY SHEAR S OF AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE. SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 
36 HOURS BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST 
SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THUS...ONLY MODEST 
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL 
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG IS ALONG 110W FROM 5N TO 19N IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC 
TURNING NOTED FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 105W-114W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. MORE 
CONCENTRATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 
11N-16N BETWEEN 111W-119W. 

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...8N83W 14N108W 13N122W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
89W-103W...AND WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE BETWEEN 111W-119W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N130W...S OF 
AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. VERY DRY/STABLE MID TO 
UPPER AIR IS OVER THE AREA W OF 120W. THE EXCEPTION IS DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM T.S. ERICK FROM 7N-18N BETWEEN 125W-135W...BEING 
STRETCHED TO THE W WITH UPPER ELY FLOW. ABUNDANT TROPICAL 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE FAR NE PAC N OF 6N E OF 115W. THIS IS BEING 
STRETCHED TO THE W WITH UPPER ELY FLOW...EXCEPT E OF 85W WITH 
UPPER NWLY FLOW. THIS DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...MODEST RIDGING DOMINATES N OF 17N W OF 
110 AROUND A 1028 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 38N137W. THIS IS PRODUCING 
LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TRADES OVER THE AREA. OVERCAST STRATUS AND 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 23N E OF 133W. OVERALL BROAD 
TROUGHING DOMINATES THE FAR NE PAC. THIS IS PRODUCING MOSTLY 
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW NORTH OF THE ITCZ WITH MODERATE CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY FLOW TO THE S OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE PULSE OF LONG 
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE NEARSHORE WITH 
SHOALING.

$$
MCW