000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010318
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM 
ERICK NEAR 13.1N 124.4W AT 0300 UTC WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 
1007 MB AND IS MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE CENTER IS LOCATED NE OF 
MOST OF THE CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY 
SHEAR CONTINUES TO ADVERSELY AFFECT THE SYSTEM AND WILL PREVENT 
A MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER MAINLY WITHIN THE SW 
QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG IS ALONG 108W FROM 6N TO 20N IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE MOVING W AT 15 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED A LITTLE 
WEST OF THE AXIS NEAR 11.5N. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED BUT THE 
CLOUD PATTERN SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...5N77W 11N105W 12N115W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FOLLOWING 
TWO POINTS 7.5N87W AND 11.4N111.1W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 12.5N TO 14N 
FROM 111.5W TO 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF A LINE 32N109W TO 
THE SOUTH TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N115W AND EAST OF 119W.  
THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CLOUDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND 
SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THIS 
CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 32N120W TO 18N140W.  THIS AREA IS DRY 
AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AS IS MOST OF THE 
AREA WEST OF 120W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF MOISTURE 
ABOUT 480 NM IN DIAMETER CENTERED NEAR 13N127W DUE TO TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION EIGHT E.

OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 110W.  A WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 7N 
EAST OF 100W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT E IS A BROAD TROUGH.

$$
LL