000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT E HAS FORMED NEAR 13.3N 123.8W AT 2100 
UTC WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB AND IS MOVING W OR 280 
DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 
KT. THE CENTER IS LOCATED NE OF MOST OF THE CONVECTION. UPPER 
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO ADVERSELY 
AFFECT THE SYSTEM AND WILL PREVENT A MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
CENTER MAINLY WITHIN THE SW QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG IS ALONG 106W FROM 4N TO 20N IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE MOVING W AT 15 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED A LITTLE WEST 
OF THE AXIS NEAR 11.5N WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THIS POINT. SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ARE PRESENT. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...6N77W 11N105W 12N115W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 
NM OF THE POINT 8.5N85.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 11.3N108.8W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 
NM OF THE POINT 11.6N116.6W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF A LINE 32N109W TO 
THE SOUTH TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N115W AND EAST OF 119W.  
THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CLOUDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND 
SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINLAND MEXICO.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 32N120W TO 18N140W.  THIS AREA IS DRY 
AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AS IS MOST OF THE 
AREA WEST OF 120W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF MOISTURE 
ABOUT 480 NM IN DIAMETER CENTERED NEAR 13N127W DUE TO TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION EIGHT E.

OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 110W.  A WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 7N 
EAST OF 100W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT E IS A BROAD TROUGH.

$$
LL