000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310935
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W N OF 2N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE 
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
250NM OF THE AXIS N OF 9N.

LOW 13N121W 1009 MB IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
121W FROM 3N TO 19N MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS 
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS 
EVENING...HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

...ITCZ...

AXIS ALONG 8N83W 11N100W 10N107W 13N119W 7N130W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90NM N AND 180NM S OF THE AXIS OFF THE 
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
90NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W-115W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 120W...
VERY DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF 
THE AREA...WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION IS THE 
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 13N121W. ELY FLOW S OF AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N124W IS DISPLACING THE CONVECTION TO 
THE W OF THE LOW. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING W TO 133W MAINLY 
FROM 7N-18N. SEVERAL OTHER UPPER FEATURES NOTED...BUT ARE NOT 
GENERATING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. AT THE SFC...A 1027 MB HIGH 
NEAR 37N138W HAS MODERATE TRADES MAINLY N OF 15N. THE REMNANT 
SWIRL OF DALILA IS NOW A TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 25N121W 
18N124W...WHICH HAS VERY LITTLE WIND ASSOCIATED WITH IT. 

E OF 120W...
INVERTED UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 112W. ANOTHER 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM 10N ALONG 99W/100W. AN UPPER RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS SE THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 16N92W 8N77W. 
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURES MAINLY N OF 6N. 
AT THE SFC...MODERATE CROSS EQUATORIAL S/SW FLOW IS MAINLY S OF 
10N...WITH LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE FLOW TO THE N OF THE ITCZ 
IN OVERALL BROAD TROUGHING.

$$
MCW