000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W TO THE N OF 5N AND HAS MOVED W 15 
KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED 
ALONG THE WAVE AT 9N WITH ONLY A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 8N TO 10N. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 10N TO 
THE COAST OF MEXICO.

LOW PRES 12N118W 1008 MB IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 118W FROM 4N TO 16N. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED W 12 KT OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED W OF THE ESTIMATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER... 
WITHIN 60 NM OF 12N120W. THIS EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE SUPPRESSING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 9N84W 9N92W 15N106W 12N118W 8N125W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 5N77W 9N85W AND ALSO LINE 8N93W 9N106W 
13N114W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA ALONG 34N130W 28N137W. A MID LEVEL CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 
31N125W WITH A TROUGH SW ALONG 25N130W 17N134W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 24N143W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO NEAR 
29N136W. A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS E OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH 
NEAR 24N119W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING 
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 15N TO 32N BETWEEN 15W AND 112W. THE 
UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 17N W OF 110W 
AND S OF 17N W OF 130W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 30N110W WITH A TROUGH S TO ANOTHER 
CYCLONE AT 23N110W. JUST TO THE E...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 
27N103 WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING S OFF THE MEXICAN COAST TO A SHARP 
CREST AT 19N107W.    

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM E CUBA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AT 
90W TO AN ILL DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE ESTIMATED THE EQUATOR AT 
104W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N81W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS 
NOTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA ROUGHLY 
WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 19N96W 10N110W 14N124W. 
CONVECTION...AND THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE...IS CONTAINED 
WITHIN THE SAME AREA. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED S OF 4N BETWEEN 
130W AND 115W...AND S OF 5N BETWEEN 105W AND 80W.

$$
NELSON