000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W N OF 2N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW TO 
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING REMAINS EVIDENT WITHIN 180 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-13N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
REMAINS DISORGANIZED FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 94W-100W...AND FROM 
13N-15N BETWEEN 96W-98W. 

LOW PRES 12N117W 1008 MB IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 117W FROM 3N TO 17N. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WNW 10 TO 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE 
W OF THE CENTER FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 118W-122W...WITH STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW OVER THE AREA S OF AN UPPER HIGH. ANY 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO THESE 
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N84W 9N93W 14N108W 10N120W 8N130W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND 85W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS MAINLY 
S OF THE AXIS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 101W-108W...AND FROM 10N-14N 
BETWEEN 108W-112W.  

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 115W...
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO 
DOMINATE THIS PORTION OF THE EPAC SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION... 
EVEN ALONG THE ITCZ ASIDE FROM THE ACTIVITY W OF THE LOW NEAR 
12N117W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 129W N OF 25N. UPPER 
ANTICYCLONES NOTED NEAR 20N140W AND NEAR 23N119W. AN INVERTED 
UPPER TROUGH LIES BETWEEN THE TWO ALONG 133W S OF 20N. THE SFC 
PRES GRADIENT REMAINS MODEST BETWEEN A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 35N145W 
AND THE REMNANT SWIRL OF DALILA...WHICH IS NOW ANALYZED AS AN 
OPEN TROUGH ALONG 27N121W 21N122W. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS 
REVEALED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN THIS 
VICINITY. ELSEWHERE TRADES REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.  

E OF 115W...
A BROAD INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 99W. UPPER NE FLOW TO THE W 
OF THE TROUGH IS SPREADING DEBRIS MOISTURE SW FROM CONVECTION 
OVER MEXICO AND THE ITCZ BETWEEN 98W-115W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS 
SPREADING WNW TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY N OF 5N. AT 
THE SFC...MODERATE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY FLOW PERSISTS MAINLY S 
OF 9N. LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS FOUND N OF THE ITCZ. THE 
EXCEPTION IS MODERATE NW WINDS BETWEEN THE W COAST OF BAJA AND 
115W...MAINLY S OF 28N.  

$$
MCW