000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W TO THE N OF 5N AND HAS MOVED W 15 
KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED 
ALONG THE WAVE AT 7N WITH ONLY A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...AGAIN AT 7N. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION OCCASIONALLY FLARES WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS 
TO THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. 

LOW PRES 10N114W 1006 MB IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 114W FROM 4N TO 16N. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED W 12 KT OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FLARING W OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER...WITHIN 15 NM OF 10N116W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 114W AND 119W. THIS LOW HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N78W 9N91W 13N105W 8N121W 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 7N90W 11N110W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH STALLED ALONG 35N136W 30N143W. AN UPPER CYCLONE 
HAS CUT OFF NEAR 24N131W AND ANOTHER NEAR 18N132W. SOME UPPER 
MOISTURE IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N122W 
27N130W BUT IS EVAPORATING WITH TIME. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 16N143W WITH A RIDGE NE TO NEAR 
31N134W AND ANOTHER NEAR 23N117W RIDGING SW TO NEAR 15N126W. 
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED UNDER THE RIDGE...WITHIN 240 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 18N97W 10N120W WHERE THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO 
CONTAINED. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY OVER THE 
DISCUSSION AREA W OF 108W.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
ALONG 13N89W TO AN ILL DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 2N100W. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 13N78W RIDGING W TO NEAR 14N85W. 
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NEAR 
11N84W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N 
OF 5N E OF 108W. 

THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF DELILA IS STILL SPINNING NEAR 24N123W 
AND IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON. 

$$
NELSON