000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290907
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W N OF 5N MOVING W 15 KT OVER THE PAST 
24 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION...LIKELY ENHANCED BY 
THIS LOW-LEVEL FEATURE...LIE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND COASTAL WATERS N OF 13N BETWEEN 88W AND 96W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 114W FROM 4N-16N MOVING W 15 KT OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE 
AXIS NEAR 10N. THE SYSTEM REMAINS SHEARED BY UPPER ELY FLOW 
WHICH IS CONFINING THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE W/NW OF THE LOW 
LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONVECTION 
HAS BEEN DEEPENING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. SLOW DEVELOPMENT 
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N78W 10N100W 13N108W 8N125W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
90W AND 95W.   

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 120W...
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAINS ENTRENCHED 
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE EPAC. THIS SINKING AIRMASS IS 
STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE PROVIDING A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP 
WHICH HAS SUFFICIENTLY SUPPRESSED ANY CONVECTION...EVEN ALONG 
THE ITCZ. THE SFC PRES GRADIENT REMAINS MODEST BETWEEN A 1027 MB 
HIGH NEAR 35N140W AND THE REMNANT SWIRL OF DELILA...ANALYZED 
1011 MB NEAR 25N122W. STILL...A 0248Z QSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME 20 
KT VECTORS IN CLOSE TO THE W SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SWIRL. WINDS 
HERE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW THAT CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO. ELSEWHERE...TRADES REMAIN MODERATE...MOSTLY BELOW 20 
KT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

E OF 120W...
EXTENSIVE NE TO ELY UPPER FLOW...TO THE S OF A LARGE SCALE 
RIDGE...IS TRANSPORTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL BELT. THE REASON WHY MOISTURE IS FAIRLY PLENTIFUL HERE 
IS DUE TO A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW U.S. WHICH APPEARS 
CAUGHT WITHIN THE RIDGE. CONVECTION IS MOST PROMINENT NEAR THE 
ORGANIZING TROPICAL WAVE AND EMBEDDED AREA OF LOW PRES...FOR 
DETAILS REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION SECTION. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE ARE ALSO NEAR THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND S MEXICO N OF 13N BETWEEN 88W AND 96W. 

$$
CANGIALOSI