000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W N OF 3N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK 
CYCLONIC TURNING IS SEEN NEAR 7N84W WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W FROM 3N TO 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR 10N109W ESTIMATED AT 1009 MB. 
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM OF 9N113W. UPPER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N84W 9N90W 12N103W 7N116W 10N130W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 7N83W AND WITHIN 
120 NM  EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 107W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS COVERS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 
120W LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...EVEN ALONG 
THE ITCZ WHICH IS BASICALLY ABSENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 23N115W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E 
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. ELY WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 
RIDGE ARE TRANSPORTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS 
MEXICO INTO THE EPAC E OF 120W. A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS 
DOMINATE THE NW PORTION. ONE OF THEM IS ALONG 31N122W 25N127W.  

SFC PATTERN REMAINS TRANQUIL WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING ACROSS THE 
REGION TOWARD THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF DALILA. THIS FEATURE IS 
STILL SPINNING NEAR 24N121W AND IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN TO 
AN OPEN TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS 
SHOWED WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. 
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER A LARGE AREA N OF 20N 
AND WEST OF 125W.  

$$
GR