000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280911 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUL 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W N OF 5N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE IS LITTLE STRUCTURE DEFINING THIS WAVE AXIS ATTM...STILL PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE LIE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 108W FROM 5N TO 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS ALIGNED TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS...WITHIN 240 NM...SHEARED BY UPPER EASTERLIES. A QSCAT PASS AROUND 02Z SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF TURNING IN THE SFC WIND FIELD WITH MAX WINDS NEAR 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT NEAR THE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N78W 12N100W 8N110W 7N118W THEN DISCONTINUOUS AND RESUMES ALONG 14N120W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 102W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 20N... EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATES THE REGION. THE ONLY AREA OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DELILA...AND LIKELY LITTLE TO NONE OF THIS IS PRODUCING ANY RAINFALL. THIS STABLE PATTERN IS CONTRIBUTED TO CONTINUED UPPER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN INVERTED TROUGHING ALONG 126W AND AN UPPER HIGH TO ITS SW. SFC PATTERN ALSO REMAINS TRANQUIL WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE REMNANT LOW. THE ONLY AREA OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS...20 TO MAYBE 25 KT AS SUGGESTED BY THE A PARTIAL QSCAT PASS...IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THIS REMNANT SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHRINK IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE FALLING BELOW THAT CRITERIA. S OF 20N... THE ATMOSPHERE S OF 20N E OF 120W HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UPPER MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALBEIT LESS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED IN LAST NIGHT'S IMAGERY. THIS SLIGHTLY LESS MOIST AIRMASS IS DUE TO DRY SLOTS ROTATING AROUND A RIDGE TO THE N THRU THE CARIB INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC WATERS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WINDS/SEAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES. FOR MORE DETAILS REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND LIMITED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. W OF 120W...THE AIRMASS SUBSTANTIALLY DRIES OUT SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CLOUD FORMATION EVEN ALONG THE ITCZ WHICH IS BASICALLY ABSENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. $$ CANGIALOSI