000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM DALILA AT 16.7N 110.6W...OR ABOUT 185 NM SE OF 
SOCORRO ISLAND...AT 24/1500 UTC MOVING NNW AT 6 KT.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 40 GUSTS TO 50 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRES 1004 MB.  SEAS 12 FT OR HIGHER EXTEND 30 NM NE...60 
NM SE AND 90 NM SW QUADRANTS.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
180 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM NE QUADRANT.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 109W-115W.  SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS S OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 94W N OF 7N 
MOVING W 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM W OF WAVE AXIS N OF 11N.  NO ORGANIZATION NOTED ON 
SYSTEM AND FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH 
SHOULD LESSEN ITS CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...9N84W  14N106W  14N116W  9N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 106W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH ENTERING E PAC BASIN FROM 32N137W TO 23N140W 
LIKELY TO BE DIVERTED NEWD BY WELL ANCHORED BROAD MID-UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED AT 25N124W.  TROUGH BRINGS ONLY MOISTURE 
INTO OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS UNDER RIDGE N OF 22N W OF 120W.  
DRYNESS S OF 22N CURTAILING ITCZ ACTIVITY W OF T.S. DALILA.  A 
MORE MOISTURE UNDER RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO 8N100W ALSO PROVIDING 
BENEFICIAL UPPER OUTFLOW TO DALILA.  

SRN PERIPHERY OF SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CARIBBEAN SEA 
AT 19N83W BRING QUASI-ZONAL E FLOW OVER REMAINDER OF E PAC.  
WEAK TROUGH BETWEEN RIDGES BARELY DENT INTO E PAC JUST S OF GULF 
TEHUANTEPEC PROVIDES GOOD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER TROPICAL 
WAVE ALONG 94W ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 11N. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1030 MB WELL NW OF FORECAST WATERS 
HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 20N120W.  NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURES 
BESIDES DALILA ARE NOTED OVER E PAC.  
 
$$
WALLY BARNES