000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM DALILA CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 108.6W...OR ABOUT 350 
NM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND...AT 23/0900 UTC MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. A WELL DEFINED BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS 
DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HR SW OF THE CENTER.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 10N92W 17N108W 13N122W 9N130W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
60 NM OF 5N79W AND 11N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N117W TO 8N132W TO 8N140W.

ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 11N87W. SCATTERED STRONG NEAR THE COAST 
FROM 13N90W TO 15N96W AND FROM 17N102W TO 19N107W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH ALONG 140W N OF THE AREA HAS SHARPENED WITH A JET 
DIGGING SWD TO 30N IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP 
SEND WEAK COLD FRONTS S INTO OUR REGION. A MID LEVEL RIDGE 
CONTINUES OVER THE SW CONUS. THE INVERTED TROUGH STUCK IN THE 
RIDGE IS SLOWLY WORKING IT'S WAY NWD TONIGHT. IT'S AXIS IS OVER 
NRN BAJA EXTENDING SW TO 20N130W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT T.D. 
SEVEN-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TRPL STORM DALILA. HIGH LEVEL WINDS 
REMAIN BRISK FROM THE NE BUT THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE HOLDING IT'S 
OWN. THE PACIFIC RIDGE HAS A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 29N132W BUT 
TRADES REMAIN WEAK. QUIKSCAT AND SSMI SH0W WINDS NE 15 TO 20 KT 
AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL FOR 06Z. WINDS ALONG 
THE BAJA COAST ARE 10 TO 15 KT ACCORDING TO THE TWO MICROWAVE 
PASSES. GAP WINDS ARE LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ARE 
MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT.

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN. THE 
INVERTED TROUGH OVER NRN BAJA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NW. 
ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 ALL CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THE 
PROGRESS OF T.S. DALILA FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. LITTLE 
CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. 

FOR DAY 2 UPPER TROUGH ALONG 140W SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND 
LIFTING NE WITH LESS AFFECT ON OUR REGION. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE 
OVER THE SW CONUS CHANGES LITTLE. WEAKNESS IN MID LEVELS ALONG 
112W ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. SEVEN-E ON S SIDE OF RIDGE. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 2 ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE LOWER BAJA COAST AND WRN 
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF T.S. DALILA AS 
IT MOVES TOWARD THE NW. THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 
30N136W WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO NE TRADES. BAJA WINDS REMAIN 
LIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN GAP WINDS W OF NICARAGUA TO 20 KT. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 
FT. 
 
$$
RRG