000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 105.9W...OR 
ABOUT 420 NM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 1500 UTC MOVING WNW
OR 285 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. 
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE WINDS SHEARING ALL THE CONVECTION TO THE 
WEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
ALLOWED FOR A RE-LOCATION OF THE CENTER TO THE EAST OF THE 
PREVIOUS FIXES AND THEREBY CONFIRMING THE STRONGLY SHEARED 
ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ONLY INTENSIFY SLOWLY 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS GIVEN THE RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N78W 8N90W 13N103W 15N114W 8N128W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 122W AND 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM OF 
THE AXIS W OF 133W...AND WITHIN 120-150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 
85W.  

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 88W AND 92W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
VERY AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA WITH BASE EXTENDING SWD TO NEAR 34N147W. LATEST WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS A JET DIGGING SE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH 
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED. A NARROW RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM NRN MEXICO NEAR 28N108W TO 24N130W WITH 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 100W WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 30N120W. MODERATE 
TO STRONG NE FLOW ALOFT S OF THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXERT A 
TOLL ON T.D. SEVEN-E BY SHEARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE W OF THE 
LOW LEVEL CENTER...REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
28N140W ESE TO 20N110W WITH SUB NORMAL TRADES TO 20 KT FROM 13N 
TO 20N W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NWLY AND LIGHT 
AS CONFIRMED BY SSMI AND QUIKSCAT DATA. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY 
WINDS TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W AND W 
OF 115W. 

E OF 100W...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC NELY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE AREA E OF 
100W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
12N95W. THIS FLOW WAS OCCURRING AT THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NW MEXICO AND ANOTHER ONE LOCATED OVER 
THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N77W. NE FLOW WAS ADVECTING SIGNIFICANT 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE 
SURFACE GAP WINDS WERE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. 
 
$$
COBB