000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201612
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT WITH 1010 MB LOW AT 
9N97W. BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION INDICATED FROM ANIMATED METSAT 
DATA AND QUIKSCAT WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS 
NEAR 7N/8N AND 13N/14N.
  
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W FROM 4N TO 16N MOVING W 10 KT. NO EVIDENCE 
OF THIS WAVE NOTED. CONVECTION ORIENTED NE/SW ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH 
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 139W FROM 4N TO 17N MOVING W 15 KT. CONVECTION 
IS DISPLACED W OF WAVE AXIS AND DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 12 HRS. 

...ITCZ...
DISCONTINUOUS AXIS. SEGMENTS 8N78W TO 11N92W...7N100W TO 8N107W... 
17N110W TO 12N116W...9N122W TO 8N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 7N TO 9N E OF 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 105W...WEAK SURFACE LOW 1010 MB NEAR 9N97W IS PART OF A LARGER 
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM 6N TO 15N S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. IT 
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WNW IN TANDEM WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W. 
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE LOW SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AND MOVING W ALONG 
9N/10N THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. 
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SUN.

W OF 105W...METSAT IMAGERY AND PREVIOUS QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW ANOMALOUS 
NE-SW ORIENTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N108W 
ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE EPAC TO 14N114W TO 8N127W...THEN TO 6N135W
IT MERGES WITH AND BECOMES INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE ITCZ. TROPICAL
WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 119W IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DIFFERENTIATE FROM 
THE MORE DOMINANT LARGE SCALE CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL S TO SW WINDS INTO
THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO TO 
20N115W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 15N125W. DIVERGENCE SE OF THIS TROUGH IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE TO 
FRESH NWLY WINDS OFF THE BAJA COAST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ANOTHER 
12 TO 24 HOURS. BENIGN TRADE WIND PATTERN N OF 10N W OF 120W WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS OF 20 KT WINDS 
AND/OR 8 FT SEAS POSSIBLE.

$$
MUNDELL