000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191607
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. LOW PRES 1009 MB CENTERED 
ALONG THE WAVE WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE ITCZ AT 8N93W. THE WAVE AND 
LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER 
THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO... 
RESULTING IN UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. 
  
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W FROM 8N TO 19N MOVING W 15 KT. CONVECTION 
WITH THIS WAVE IS MORE CLOSELY TIED TO CONVERGENCE OF SE TO S WINDS 
INTO SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BAJA PENINSULA TO 10N120W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 129W FROM 7N TO 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS IN AN 
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 8N82W 7N97W 14N112W 9N122W 12N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 
20N106W TO 8N121W.

...DISCUSSION...
MAIN AREA OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 
MANZANILLO. SURGING SOUTHERLY FLOW...AIDED BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT S 
OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO IS PRODUCING A NEARLY 
CONTINUOUS LINE OF CONVECTION FROM 20N106W TO 8N121W. HOWEVER THERE 
IS NO EVIDENCE OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ALTHOUGH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MAY BE PRESENT NEAR 10N122W. FURTHER E...WEAK LOW PRES AT 8N93W IS 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS 
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA TO NEAR 22N140W. AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL MEXICO TO 15N111W. THIS IS BRINGING 
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONDITIONS N OF 16N W OF 125W.

$$
MUNDELL