000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 2N MOVING W 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. LOW PRES 1009 MB 
CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE WHERE IT INTERSECTS WITH THE ITCZ AT 
8N90W. THE WAVE AND LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED 
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...RESULTING IN CONDITIONS 
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 
24 TO 48 HOURS. 
  
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W N OF 4N MOVING W AT 12 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 94W 
AND 96W. EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA CONFIRMED THIS IS IN AN AREA OF 
STRONG SW CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W FROM 3N TO 15N MOVING W 12 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO 
AN AREA OF DRIER AIR LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

...ITCZ...
DISCONTINUOUS AXIS 8N83W 9N91W 9N100W 18N109W 11N119W 12N131W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...
MAIN AREA OF INTEREST IS OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 
MANZANILLO...THE RESULT OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND SURGING SWLY 
FLOW...AIDED BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT S OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED 
OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. WHILE ORGANIZATION REMAINS 
POOR...AND WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...IT IS 
WEAKENING FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OFF 
AND ON OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALONG THE WAVE AS IT MOVES 
W...BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING. FURTHER E...WEAK LOW PRES AT 
8N90W IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
DAYS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

OUT WEST...TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME HAS SHIFTED W OUT OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...ALONG WITH ITS REMNANT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA TO NEAR 20N140W. AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL MEXICO TO 16N111W. THIS IS 
KEEPING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS N OF 20N AND W OF 125W. THE 
ONLY EXCEPTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW SITUATED ROUGHLY 
AT 16N131W...PROMOTING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND WEAK CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE S.


$$
CHRISTENSEN