000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182217
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 4N MOVING W 15-20 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. LOW PRES 
1011 MB CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE WHERE IT INTERSECTS WITH THE 
ITCZ AT 8N90W. THE WAVE AND LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO BE 
SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...RESULTING IN CONDITIONS 
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS. 
  
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W N OF 7N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WEAKEN 
ALONG THE WAVE N OF 16N. EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA CONFIRMED THIS IS 
IN AN AREA OF STRONG SW CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE 
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W FROM 3N TO 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO 
AN AREA OF DRIER AIR LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

...ITCZ...
DISCONTINUOUS AXIS 5N77W 9N89W 
7N96W 20N106W 11N118W 13N130W 7N137W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
MAIN AREA OF INTEREST IS OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 
MANZANILLO...THE RESULT OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND SURGING SWLY 
FLOW...AIDED BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT S OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED 
OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. WHILE ORGANIZATION REMAINS 
POOR...CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT. THIS WILL PERSIST 
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. FURTHER E...WEAK 
LOW PRES AT 8N90W IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
DAYS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

OUT WEST...TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME HAS SHIFTED W OUT OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...ALONG WITH ITS REMNANT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA TO NEAR 20N140W. AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL MEXICO TO 16N111W. THIS IS 
KEEPING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS N OF 20N AND W OF 125W. THE 
ONLY EXCEPTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW SITUATED ROUGHLY 
AT 16N131W...PROMOTING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND WEAK CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE S.


$$
CHRISTENSEN