000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM COSME AT 15.1N 136.6W AT 18/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 
11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 35 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. ELY SHEAR PERSIST ALTHOUGH 
CONVECTION IS FLARING CLOSER TO CENTER OF COSME AS CENTER 
BECOMES MORE OBSCURED. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REFER TO LATEST 
FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED AT THE N END OF THE 
WAVE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR MANZANILLO. SCATTERED MODERATE 
IS ALONG THE ITCZ W OF THE WAVE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 106W AND 
109W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W FROM 3N TO 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE CURRENTLY. 
CONSIDERABLE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF 
EARLIER CONVECTION...SPARKED BY NOTABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE 
E SIDE OF AN N-S ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH ALONG 123W. 

...ITCZ...
AXIS 8N83W 8N93W 16N105W 11N115W 13N128W 13N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ALONG MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 101W AND 
105W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 107W AND 109W. 

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...NELY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN CENTRAL AMERICA IS 
SUPPRESSING MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION 
CONCERNS DIVERGENCE ALOFT S OF LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER N 
CENTRAL MEXICO IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ W OF WAVE NEAR 
101W. 

S OF 18N W OF 110W...N-S ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 
123W. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH HAD BEEN 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ AND A 
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 118W...WITH MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION 
DISSIPATED. FURTHER W...HIGHLY SHEARED AND WEAKENING TROPICAL 
STORM COSME CONTINUES TO SHIFT W. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE 
MAINLY TO THE SW OF THE CENTER.

N OF 18N...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 25N140W. 
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY...WITH 
ONLY FIELDS OF STRATOCUMULUS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. WEAK SURFACE 
HIGH PRES 1019 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 27N130W...MAINTAINING FAIRLY 
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OFF THE BAJA 
COAST ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WHERE MODERATE TO 
FRESH NWLY FLOW IS NOTED. E AND S OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO THROUGH ROUGHLY 20N140W.


$$
CHRISTENSEN