000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171622
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM COSME AT 15.1N 134.4W AT 17/1500 UTC MOVING W AT 10 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE EXPOSED CENTER IS ABOUT 45 NM E OF THE 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 15N136W. 
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REFER TO LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 6N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED S OF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 99W AND 106W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W FROM 3N TO 15N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD 
CYCLONIC TURNING IS APPARENT FROM ANIMATED SATELLITE DATA NEAR 
12N117W WITH WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 8N78W 7N86W 16N103W 12N114W 14N125W 13N128W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF LINE FROM 
15N99W TO 19N107W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 15N127W TO 10N131W.

...DISCUSSION...
A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED WITH TROPICAL STORM COSME OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. MON EVENING IT BEGAN TO LOSE ITS EYE FEATURE AND THEN 
OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER BECAME COMPLETELY EXPOSED E OF THE 
CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION HAS TAKEN A SHARP DOWNTURN AS WELL SO IT 
IS READILY APPARENT COSME HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS PREVIOUS INTENSITY. 
WITH THE SHARP DECREASE IN WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...A CORRESPONDING 
DROP IN SEA HEIGHTS IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 
LARGE SWATH OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS BROKEN AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL 
STORM CIRCULATION JUST E OF 130W...ABOUT 300 NM E OF THE LOW CENTER.

QUIKSCAT THIS MORNING SHOWED IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS ASSOCIATED 
WITH COSME A WELL DEFINED TROUGH IN THE WIND FIELD EXTENDING SW 
ACROSS ITS ENTIRE SWATH AT 0130Z FROM 17N102W TO 8N117W. THIS TROUGH 
IS TRIGGERING ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR TROPICAL WAVE AXES ALONG 100W 
AND 117W. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION REMAINS POOR ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS 
AND VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
GLOBAL FCST MODELS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING EITHER WAVE...
THE EUROPEAN MODEL FOCUSES ITS ATTENTION ON THE MONSOON TROUGH 
ESTABLISHED S OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AS MOST LIKELY TO SPAWN A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING WINDS TO 20 
KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT JUST W OF BAJA. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS ARE 
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES.



$$
MUNDELL