000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170951
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM COSME AT 15.1N 132.7W AT 17/0900 UTC MOVING W NW 
AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 994 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 55 KT GUSTS TO 75 KT. THE 
CENTER IS NOW SHEARED WELL TO THE E OF THE ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 15N134W AND 
NUMEROUS MODERATE SURROUNDING THE STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
15N135W. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REFER TO LATEST FORECAST 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 3N IS MOVING W AT 12 KT. STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED WITHIN 15 NM OF 16N99W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR 10N96W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115.5W FROM 3N TO 17N HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 
15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED AT 12N116W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE SAME POINT.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 9N78W 11N90W 15N100W 16N106W 11N118W 
14N128W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 10N96W AND WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 18N102W 10N119W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
15N127W 9N132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE NW PORTION WITH ITS AXIS ESTIMATED 
ALONG 32N129W 27N140W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 24N110W WITH 
RIDGE EXTENDING W A SHARP CREST AT 21N129W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE NEAR 36N108W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS BLOCKING THE 
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THE LOW LEVELS...AN 
INITIAL FRONT HAS ALREADY STALLED ALONG 32N129W 28N141W BEING  
BLOCKED BY A WEAKENING HIGH PRES 29N131W. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT 
APPROACHES ALONG 34N131W 32N140W.     

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 32N95W TO A SMALL UPPER 
CYCLONE NEAR 21N98W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE W OF THIS TROUGH AND S OF 
THE ANTICYCLONE...MENTIONED ABOVE...IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ WHICH HAS PULLED N TO NEAR 16N103W. 
   
AN ATLC UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE 
E PAC NEAR 9N86W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E TO W ALONG 6S TO A 
CREST NEAR 1S133W...RESULTING IN NE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE 
TROPICAL PAC WATERS S OF 10N E OF 120W...ADVECTING ITCZ DEBRIS 
MOISTURE S.

$$
NELSON