000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170348
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE COSME AT 15.1N 132.6W AT 17/0300 UTC MOVING WNW AT 11 
KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 987 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND 65 GUSTS TO 80 KT.  NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITH 
EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. 
COSME HAS BEEN HOLDING HURRICANE STRENGTH BUT ITS EYE BECAME 
RAGGED EARLIER THIS EVENING.  SST NOW FORECAST TO HOLD STEADY 
BUT SHEAR ALOFT SHOULD BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AS COSME MOVES W. 
SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS WHICH 
WOULD EFFECTIVELY WEAKEN IT WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HRS. SEE LATEST  
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT.  NUMEROUS 
MODERATE CONVECTION IN BANDS N OF 11N WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS... 
CONCENTRATED OVER ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTION ENHANCED BY 
GOOD OUTFLOW AND DIFFLUENCE AROUND UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W FROM 3N TO 17N MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 250 NM OF AXIS FROM 7N-13N.  NO 
ORGANIZATION NOTED AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT PARTICULARLY 
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH IS MOVING INTO A LESS ADVERSE 
AREA AHEAD OF IT. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N86W  15N97W  
11N112W  16N121W  7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 5N-10N 
E OF 88W AND WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 93W-117W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS 120W-125W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH FROM 32N122W TO 25N140W BRINGS DRIER AIR MASS AND 
STRONGER UPPER WESTERLIES N OF 20N W OF 110W.  WEAKENING SMALL 
RIDGE S OF 20N W OF 120W HELPS SUPPORT COSME DEVELOPMENT SHOULD 
BE DISPLACED AS STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ENTERS AREA TO REINFORCE 
THE ONE MENTIONED ABOVE.  THAT SHOULD BE THE LAST FLING IN COSME 
LIFE SPAN. 

SHARP RIDGE ALONG 109W N OF 20N EXTENDS DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT TO 
THE MEXICAN COAST.  HEALTHY UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN GULF OF MEXICO 
EXTENDS ITS BASE TO 16N100W PRODUCING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT 
THAT IS BOOSTING TROPICAL WAVE CONVECTION OVER ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.  LOTS OF CONVECTION DEBRIS IS ADVECTED ALOFT FROM E 
PAC INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SUSPECTED VORTICITY CENTER OVER 
TEHUANTEPEC IS BEING MONITORED.  

AT THE SURFACE...
HURRICANE COSME SHINES AS THE MAIN FEATURE IN E PAC BASIN IS 
DISCUSSED ABOVE.  OTHERWISE...TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE 
REMAIN THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS.  WEAK RIDGING 
DOMINATES N OF 20N W OF 110W.  HIGH PRES 1021 MB CENTER AT 
31N131W REBUILDS INCREASING WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.  
MOISTURE LADEN MODERATE S WINDS ATTRACTED TO ITCZ CROSS THE 
EQUATOR BRINGING MODERATE SWELLS S OF 10N FROM 100W-115W. 

$$
WALLY BARNES