000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160933 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUL 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM COSME AT 13.8N 129.5W AT 0900 UTC MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 GUSTS TO 65 KT. COSME HAS STEADILY GAINED STRENGTH DURING THE NIGHT AND CENTER IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE COLDEST TOPS OF THE CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED A CIRCULAR SYMMETRY AND HAS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THUS COSME IS EXPECTED TO REACH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HR. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. OLD TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW NEAR 17.3N123.0W MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. WINDS TO 25 KT SEAS TO 9 FT. NO FURTHER ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 3N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST. NO ORGANIZATION NOTED. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SOME SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FOLLOWING THE WAVE AXIS BUT NO ORGANIZATION NOTED. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N81W 13N92W 13N108W 17N121W 8N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 5N79W AND 6N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 114W AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 119W AND 124W. .SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST FROM 14N92W TO 15N95W TO 17N103W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT THE TROUGH TO THE N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE S OF 30N WITH WEAK COLD FRONTS BRUSHING BY MAINLY N OF 27N. A RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE SW CONUS. A NLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EVIDENT ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE DOWN OVER MEXICO. THIS IS HELPING TO EJECT A CONVECTIVE AREA OFF THE WRN MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT. MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS SET UP S OF 20N AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N115W MOVING W 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS DRAWING MOISTURE OFF THE ITCZ NWD BEHIND IT. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE MAIN SYSTEM IS T.S. COSME APPROACHING 130W AND SHOULD MOVE W OF THE AREA BY 72 HR. THE TRPL CYCLONE HAS BEEN STEADILY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WWD. THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK WITH A 1020 MB CENTER NEAR 31N135W AND RIDGING SE. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST HAVE INCREASED SOME TONIGHT TO 15 TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT AND SSMI IMAGERY. GAP WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY E OF 115W AND BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. LATER DAY 1 LITLE CHANGE TO THE UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA OR THE RIDGE STATIONARY OVER THE SW CONUS. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS DOWN OVER MEXICO THEN HEAD SW AND W AROUND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 TROPICAL STORM COSME WILL CONTINUE WWD AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. FOR DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH NW OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN BUILDING SWD INTO OUR REGION AS A NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES SE. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTS TO MOVES SE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE COLDS FIRM OVER THE SW CONUS WITH IT'S AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 15N123W. THE MODEL SHOWS A WHOLE TRAIN OF WEAK IMPULSES HEADING S OVER ERN MEXICO THEN EMERGING OFF THE SRN MEXICAN COAST AND MOVING WWD. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 COSME WILL CONTINUE WWD TO NEAR 136W. AS EXPECTED A NEW COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEAK BUT EXTEND EWD ENOUGH TO GIVE THE W COAST OF BAJA NW WINDS TO 20 KT. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT DAY 2 WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 100W AND 115W AND W OF 130W. $$ RRG