000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0400 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM COSME AT 13.3N 128.8W AT 16/0300 UTC MOVING NW AT 
7 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1000 MB.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND 45 GUSTS TO 55 KT.  SEE LATEST AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  GOOD DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT ENHANCING COSME DEEP CONVECTION...BUT INCREASING SHEAR 
ONCE W OF 130W SHOULD WEAKEN COSME THEREAFTER. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E AT 17.6N 122.3W AT 16/0300 UTC MOVING 
W-NW AT 12 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1009 MB.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 25 GUSTS TO 35 KT.  SEE LATEST AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  DEPRESSION IS 
WEAKENING AS IT QUICKLY APPROACHES COOLER SST AND CONTINUES 
UNDER MODERATE NE SHEAR.  FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW PRES 
WITHIN 12 HRS AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 36 HRS.   

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 3N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION W OF WAVE N OF 13N COVER GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM W OF 
WAVE FROM 9N TO 11N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM W OF WAVE HAS BECOME ISOLATED AS ADVERSE UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHEARS TOPS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N85W  13N110W  13N126W  8N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 97W TO 113W AND 
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AT 28N138W FORCING ELONGATED 
CYCLONIC VORTEX NOW AT 29N125W TOWARDS THE NE PULLING AWAY 
SUPPORT OF SURFACE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.  SECOND ANTICYCLONE AT 
21N122W SHOULD MERGE WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE AND INCREASE SHEAR OVER 
T.D. FIVE EFFECTIVELY DOOMING IT.  MOST AREA N OF 21N REMAINS 
DRY WITH MINOR MOISTURE INTRUSION N OF 25N NW OF CYCLONIC 
VORTEX. 

VERY WELL ANCHORED BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN 
MEXICO ENHANCES FLOW OF WET TROPICAL AIRMASS FROM SOUTH AMERICA 
OVER INTO E PAC ALONG ITCZ SUPPLYING FUEL FOR CONVECTION 
ESPECIALLY ALONG TROPICAL WAVES NOW AT 93W AND 107W.  

AT THE SURFACE...NW WIND INCREASE ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AS 
SFC TROUGH DISSIPATES AND MB HIGH PRES REBUILDS.  CROSS 
EQUATORIAL S WIND MOVE INTO ITCZ BRINGING S SWELL TRAINS FROM 
95W TO 115W.  

$$
WALLY BARNES