000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152210
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 2200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM COSME AT 12.7N 128.0W AT 15/2100 UTC MOVING NW AT 
7 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1005 MB.  ITS MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 45 GUSTS TO 55 KT WITHIN 12 
HRS.  SEE LATEST AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS.  GOOD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING COSME DEEP 
CONVECTION...BUT INCREASING SHEAR ONCE W OF 130W SHOULD WEAKEN 
COSME THEREAFTER. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E AT 17.1N 121.1W AT 15/2100 UTC MOVING 
W-NW AT 13 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1008 MB.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 25 GUSTS TO 35 KT.  SEE LATEST AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  DEPRESSION IS 
WEAKENING AS IT QUICKLY APPROACHES COOLER SST AND CONTINUES 
UNDER MODERATE NE SHEAR.  FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW PRES 
WITHIN 12 HRS.   

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 3N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  INCREASING 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION W OF WAVE N OF 13N COVER 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM W OF WAVE FROM 9N TO 11N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W OF WAVE FROM 10N TO 15N. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N85W  12N93W  13N110W  16N116W  6N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS E OF 110W AND 
WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS W OF 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AT 28N137W FORCING CYCLONIC 
VORTEX NOW AT 25N129W TOWARDS THE NE PULLING AWAY SUPPORT OF 
SURFACE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  SECOND ANTICYCLONE AT 
20N121W SHOULD MERGE WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE AND INCREASE SHEAR OVER 
T.D. FIVE EFFECTIVELY DOOMING IT.  MOST AREA N OF 21N REMAINS 
DRY WITH MINOR MOISTURE INTRUSION NW OF CYCLONIC VORTEX. 

VERY WELL ANCHORED BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER 
GUATEMALA ENHANCES FLOW OF WET TROPICAL AIRMASS FROM SOUTH 
AMERICA OVER INTO E PAC ALONG ITCZ SUPPLYING FUEL FOR CONVECTION 
ESPECIALLY ALONG TROPICAL WAVES NOW AT 93W AND 106W.  

AT THE SURFACE...NW WIND INCREASE ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST 
WHEN 1020 MB HIGH PRES AT 30N127W REBUILDS AS WEAK COLD FRONT 
BECOMES DIFFUSE TONIGHT.  CROSS EQUATORIAL S WIND MOVE INTO ITCZ 
BRINGING S SWELL TRAINS FROM 95W TO 115W.  

$$
WALLY BARNES