000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151601
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 119.7W AT 15/1500 
UTC MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 
KT. SEE THE LATEST AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS. THIS SMALL SCALE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY 
ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED TO THE E OF AN AREA 
OF CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM TO ITS W. THIS SHEARED SYSTEM IS 
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ITS SPIN DOWN PHASE TO A REMNANT LOW AS 
IT HEADS TOWARD COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E CENTERED NEAR 12.3N 127.5W AT 15/1500 
UTC MOVING NW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ 
WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. UNLIKE T.D. 5-E...THIS DEPRESSION 
HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED 
BETWEEN TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS. THIS CONSIDERABLY HEALTHIER SYSTEM 
APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITH THE 
OVERALL CIRCULATION CONSOLIDATING SLIGHTLY AND CONVECTION 
IMPROVING NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. WHILE INTENSIFICATION IS 
LIKELY IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO 
BEGIN A WEAKENING PROCESS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO A 
REGION WITH COOLER SSTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED W ALONG 91W N OF 3N MOVING W NEAR 15 
KT. THIS UPDATED PSN IS BASED ON AN IMPROVED AREA OF LOW TO MID 
LEVEL TURNING COVERING AN AREA OF ABOUT 4 DEG EITHER SIDE OF THE 
WAVE AXIS. DISORGANIZED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
TO THE W OF THE AXIS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 10N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 93W AND 95W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 104W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE 
HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY WITH ELONGATED LOW 
TO MID LEVEL TURNING EVIDENT ALONG THE AXIS AND AN ASSOCIATED 
N-S LINE OF CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 11N100W 15N115W 10N132W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N E OF 80W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W-107W AND 
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 133W-136W.  

...DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS IN THE BASIN...SFC WINDS ARE 
GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE EPAC WATERS. THE SFC PATTERN ALLOWING 
FOR THESE LIGHT WINDS HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N127W AND A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N132W TO 28N140W. 
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT OFF THE BAJA 
COAST TONIGHT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AS QSCAT SHOWS 15 KT 
ATTM....AND PERSIST THRU 48 HOURS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS 
BETWEEN THE NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH AND INVERTED TROUGHING OVER 
THE SW U.S. AND NW MEXICO. 

IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE STRONG UPPER LOW IS 
SPINNING NE INTO BRITISH COLOMBIA. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW PROVIDING 
LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THE WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF 
THE REGION. UPPER RIDGING IS THE GENERAL THEME ACROSS THE 
SUBTROPICS WITH A SERIES OF UPPER HIGH CENTERS. ONE HIGH CENTER 
IS CENTERED NEAR 22N119W LIKELY PROVIDING SHEAR OVER T.D. FIVE. 
AN UPPER LOW IS INTERRUPTING THE RIDGING LOCATED NEAR 
25N129W...PRODUCING NOT MUCH MORE THAN BROKEN CIRRUS TO ITS N 
AND E. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N...ABUNDANT DRY STABLE AIR IS CAPPING 
THE TYPICAL LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.

$$
CANGIALOSI