000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E AT 16.2N 118.6W AT 15/0900 UTC MOVING 
W AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1008 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR 
CENTER. STRONGER CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM NW OF CENTER HAS 
DEVELOPED IN PAST TWO HOURS. ENVIRONMENT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT 
GOOD. MARGINAL OUTFLOW. LOW LEVEL INFLOW APPEARS CUTOFF BY 
CONVECTION TO S. SEE LATEST AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E AT 11.5N 127.6W AT 15/0900 UTC MOVING 
WNW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1006 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IN A BAND TO 
THE W AND NW. OTHER CONVECTION NE OF CENTER HAS WEAKENED DURING 
THE PAST TWO HOURS. CIRCULATION IS FAIRLY LARGE AND OUTFLOW 
SYMMETRICAL. SEE LATEST AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 3N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION ON EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS BUT NO ORGANIZATION NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 4 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS 
BUT NOT ORGANIZED. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N77W 11N104W 16N119W 10N129W 
8N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 8N87W. AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 96W AND 
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF 9N135W. 

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST FROM 
5N78W TO 7N78W TO 8N78W. OTHER STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N87W TO 
12N88W TO 11N90W TO 12N93W TO 14N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 
17N101W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH ALONG 130W LIFTING NE TONIGHT AND AWAY FROM THE 
REGION. STATIONARY MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SW CONUS EXTENDS S OVER 
BAJA AND NW MEXICO. MID LEVEL ELY FLOW S OF 20N WITH EMBEDDED 
WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG 100W..110W..118W AND 129W. ON THE 
SURFACE TONIGHT PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK WITH 1019 MB CENTER 
NEAR 30N129W. GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED 
WITH TRPL DEPRESSION 6E PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 20 KT. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST 10 TO 15 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI AND QUIKSCAT. 
GAP WINDS LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT 
ALTHOUGH QUIKSCAT SHOWS SOME 20 TO 25 KT NEAR CONVECTION ON ITCZ.

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO MID LEVEL PATTERN. UPPER TROUGH 
STILL JUST N OF AREA THEREFORE WEAKENING FRONTS CAN STILL BRUSH 
NW CORNER OF AREA BUT WITH MINIMAL AFFECT. ON THE SURFACE LATER 
DAY 1 DISSIPATING FRONT 30N137W TO 27N140W WITH WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT AND SEAS TO 7 FT IN NW SWELL. BAJA WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AS 
DO GAP WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE TO CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS.

FOR DAY 2 UPPER TROUGH TO N REMAINS ACTIVE WITH NEW SHORTWAVE 
MOVING THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH. MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS STEADY OVER 
SW CONUS RIDGING SW TO 22N120W. MID LEVEL EASTERLIES S OF 20N 
WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG 95W..118W AND 130W. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 2 WEAK 1019 MB HIGH ANCHORS PACIFIC RIDGE NEAR 
30N129W.  WINDS AND SEAS W OF 125W DOMINATED BY TRPL STORM 6-E 
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST INCREASE TO 20 
KT WITH INCREASE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER 
GULF OF CORTEZ. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY 
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 100W AND 110W AND BETWEEN 125W 
AND 135W.

$$
RRG