000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150417
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E AT 15.9N 117.2W AT 15/0300 UTC MOVING 
WNW AT 12 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1008 MB.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 25 GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SW AND 150 NM NW 
QUADRANTS.  UPPER ENVIRON HAS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE TO SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E AT 11.3N 127.2W HAS BECOME BETTER 
ORGANIZED WITH BETTER CIRCULATION AND STRONGER AND MORE NUMEROUS 
DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER.  SEE LATEST AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT NEXT 48 HRS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 3N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  MOST 
CONVECTION OVER LAND AND CARIBBEAN SIDE OF WAVE WHERE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE ENHANCES DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT HAS BECOME 
BETTER DEFINED WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION N OF ITCZ W OF 
WAVE AXIS.  UPPER ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN FAVORABLE BUT WAVE NOW 
ENTERS A LITTLE MORE ADVERSE ENVIRON AND MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO 
HOLD ALL THAT CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W  10N91W  
10N101W  15N119W  8N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG 
WITHIN 150 NM OF ENTIRE AXIS MERGES WITH NUMEROUS TSTMS...WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG  CONVECTION ...IN VICINITY OF TROPICAL 
WAVES...T.D. FIVE-E AND T.D. SIX-E. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND 
FROM 32N127W TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 23N129W THEN CONTINUE TO 
14N140W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG 
AND WITHIN 300 NM W OF AXIS.  TROUGH COMBINES WITH WEAK 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 17N119W TO DRIVE CHANNEL OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE NE FROM ITCZ DEBRIS OF WHAT NOW IS T.D. SIX-E.  
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE TO MIXING 
WITH DRIER AIR MASS PUSHED W BY EXTENSION OF RIDGE OVER NRN 
MEXICO/SRN ARIZONA.

CARIBBEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 15N86W NOT ONLY ENHANCES FLOW OF 
MOIST TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO E PAC ALONG ITCZ 
TRACK BUT CONTRIBUTES TO ITS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER 
TROPICAL WAVES...ONE ALONG 100W AND ANOTHER ALONG 85W.

AT THE SURFACE...PRES PATTERN LOOSEN AS 1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTER 
IS PUSHED E BY WEAK COLD FRONT 32N131W 25N140W.  NW-N WINDS 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WITHIN 24 HRS 
AS HIGH PRES SQUEEZES GRADIENT THERE WHILE NE TRADES DIMINISH TO 
MODERATE STRENGTH.  CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW S OF ITCZ LIKELY TO 
INCREASE AS CONVECTION ALONG TROPICAL WAVES BECOMES MORE 
ORGANIZED.

$$
WALLY BARNES