000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E AT 16.2N 116.1W AT 14/2100 UTC MOVING 
WNW AT 11 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1006 MB.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 30 GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE.  T.D. 
FIVE-E FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TONIGHT 
THEN WEAKEN BACK TO DEPRESSION AS UPPER ENVIRON BECOMES MORE 
HOSTILE TO SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E AT 11.4N 127.1W HAS BECOME BETTER 
ORGANIZED WITH BETTER CIRCULATION AND STRONGER AND MORE NUMEROUS 
DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER.  SEE LATEST AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT NEXT 48 HRS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W N OF 3N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. MOST 
CONVECTION OVER LAND AND CARIBBEAN SIDE OF WAVE WHERE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE ENHANCES DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT HAS BECOME BETTER 
DEFINED WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION N OF ITCZ W OF WAVE 
AXIS.  UPPER ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN FAVORABLE BUT WAVE NOW ENTERS 
A LITTLE MORE ADVERSE ENVIRON AND MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO HOLD ALL 
THAT CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W  10N100W  14N114W  8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG WITHIN 150 NM OF ENTIRE AXIS 
MERGES WITH NUMEROUS TSTMS...WITH ISOLATED STRONG  CONVECTION 
...IN VICINITY OF TROPICAL WAVES...T.D. FIVE-E AND T.D. SIX-E. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND 
FROM 32N127W TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 23N129W THEN CONTINUE TO 
15N140W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG 
AND WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH AXIS.  TROUGH COMBINES WITH WEAK 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 17N117W TO DRIVE CHANNEL OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE NE FROM ITCZ DEBRIS OF WHAT NOW IS T.D. SIX-E.  
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE TO MIXING 
WITH DRIER AIR MASS PUSHED W BY EXTENSION OF RIDGE OVER NRN 
MEXICO/SRN ARIZONA.

CARIBBEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 16N85W NOT ONLY ENHANCES FLOW OF 
MOIST TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO E PAC ALONG ITCZ 
TRACK BUT CONTRIBUTES TO ITS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER 
TROPICAL WAVES...ONE ALONG 99W AND ANOTHER ALONG 83W.

AT THE SURFACE...PRES PATTERN LOOSEN AS 1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTER 
IS PUSHED E BY WEAK COLD FRONT 32N133W 26N140W.  NW-N WINDS 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AS HIGH PRES 
SQUEEZES GRADIENT THERE WHILE NE TRADES DIMINISH TO MODERATE 
STRENGTH.  CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW S OF ITCZ LIKELY TO INCREASE AS 
CONVECTION ALONG TROPICAL WAVES BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED.

$$
WALLY BARNES