000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141609 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUL 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 114.4W AT 14/1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOST ORGANIZED TO THE S AND SW OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 114W-117W. T.D. 5 IS FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 11N126W HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEEPENING NEAR THE CENTER WITH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION AND BANDING FEATURES NOW BETTER DEFINED. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED AND THIS MAY BE CLASSIFIED AS THE NEXT T.D. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W N OF 3N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LITTLE STRUCTURE APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOUGH FAIRLY CONVECTIVE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS IN THE W CARIB. ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THE EPAC IS ALIGNED LINEARLY ALONG THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 87W HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE SFC ANALYSIS AS IT APPEARS THAT ANY ENTITY HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER WAVE TO THE W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING. CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED JUST W OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 115W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE SPAWNED NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E. THE LEFTOVER PORTION OF THE WAVE IS WEAK AND LOW AMPLITUDE WITH LITTLE TO NO STRUCTURE OR CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N82W 10N100W 14N112W 12N120W 9N133W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 122W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 131W AND 135W.. ...DISCUSSION... OUTSIDE OF THE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE TROPICAL SYSTEMS DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE PAC WATERS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET. THE SFC PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK FOR THIS REGION DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A 1018 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N122W AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ALONG 32N133W 26N140W. THIS PATTERN IS ONLY ALLOWING FOR A SMALL AREA OF TRADES TO 20 KT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND SPECIAL FEATURE NEAR 11N126W. THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS...TO 20 KT...ATTM IS ASSOCIATED WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW S OF 9N BETWEEN 84W AND 100W. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE STRONG UPPER LOW IS SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW STATES. THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING THE SUPPORT FOR THE WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED ABOVE THE SFC HIGH NEAR 24N127W. DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE BULK OF THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 120W. E OF 120W...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE MOIST DUE TO UPPER SLYS DRIVING MOISTURE NWD FROM THE DEEP TROPICS. HOWEVER...DEEP PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE REMAINS ALIGNED ALONG THE ITCZ...TROPICAL WAVES...AND MOST IMPRESSIVE NEAR THE SPECIAL FEATURES DISCUSSED ABOVE. $$ CANGIALOSI