000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 3N HAS MOVED W 15 KT DURING THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED OVER LAND NEAR 
13N89W. THERE IS A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF ITCZ CONVECTION ALONG 
THE WAVE AXIS AT 10N90W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W N OF 5N MOVING W AT 15 KT BASED ON 
THE PAST 48 HOURS MOTION. A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDS N 
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO.

LOW PRES NEAR 14.5N112W 1007 MB ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE ALONG 111W 
N OF 6N HAS ABOUT 3 TO 4 TENTHS BANDING W OF CENTER. HOWEVER THE 
CENTER IS STRETCHED N TO S A FEW DEGREES WITH ANOTHER CYCLONIC 
SWIRL INDICATED FURTHER N. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS 
POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE ESTIMATED 
CENTER...WITH THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION OF LIGHTNING IN THE NW 
QUADRANT BUT DECREASING AT THE MOMENT.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 123W WITH LOW PRES ANALYZED NEAR 11N124W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 
NM 11N124W. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 10N84W 8N93W 15N112W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 15 NM OF 
8N89W AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N113W 11N133W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY A SECONDARY 
SHORTWAVE OVER THE W PORTION WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 32N133W 
17N135W...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG 32N137W 
28N143W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE STALLING AND 
DISSIPATING THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS WITHIN A DAY OR 
SO. UPPER MOISTURE HAS SPREAD E OVER THE AREA OF NW OF LINE 
32N124W 20N135W.  

AN UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES NEAR 19N123W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY SW 
AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MERGES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO ITS 
W BECOMING A NE TO SW UPPER TROUGH LYING ALONG 32N129W 13N137W 
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 100W AND 118W...IS ADVECTED N IN RESPONSE TO 
THE CYCLONE AND WRAPS W OVER THE UPPER LEVELS FROM 23N TO 32N 
BETWEEN 114W AND 123W...BUT SOME OF THE MOISTURE STILLS SPREADS 
N OVER CONUS DESERT SW...BUT SEEMS TO BE EVAPORATING WITH TIME.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N126W 
1020 MB. 

GAP WINDS...ELY WINDS 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO 
RELAX BELOW 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. N WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO AT 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT WITH AND INCREASE 
TO 20...POSSIBLY 25 KT...SAT MORNING THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

$$
NELSON