000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W N OF 3N IS MOVING W 12 KT. A FEW SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE S COAST OF COSTA RICA.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W N OF 5N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE WAVE 
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH LITTLE CONVECTION NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W N OF 6N AND HAS MOVED W AT 12 KT THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 
14N WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED N OF 13N TO THE MEXICAN COAST. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 120W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 12 KT. WEAK 
CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED MAINLY ALONG THE AXIS AT 11N WHERE THE 
DEEPEST CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N84W 7N92W 12N105W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE LINE 6N85W 7N95W 15N99W 15N106W 11N107W 11N120W 
8N124W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION WITH MEAN 
AXIS ALONG 32N129W 22N127W...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT 
APPROACHING THE NW PORTION. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE OVER 
THE AREA OF N OF 24N W OF 132W. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS 
INDICATED N OF 14N W OF 121W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N94W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS OLD 
MEXICO TO A CREST NEAR 26N118W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE...MAINLY 
FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 94W AND 110W...CONTINUES TO SPREAD 
N ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER LEVELS OF 
THE CONUS DESERT SW. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR 
29N124W BUT OVERALL RIDGING IN THE EPAC REMAINS WEAK. 

GAP WINDS...ELY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI THEN RELAX INTO SAT. 

$$
NELSON