000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W N OF 7N AND HAS MOVED W 12 KT OVER 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
WITH MOSTLY A SURGE IN THE ELY WIND. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 99W N OF 7N HAS MOVED W AT 12 KT OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR 11N100W. THE 
ENHANCEMENT OF ITCZ CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DECREASING.
  
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 114W FROM 6N TO 14N WITH CYCLONIC TURNING 
NOTED NEAR 11N114W WITH LITTLE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 13N114W 9N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N82W AND 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 10N99W 13N102W AND LINE 8N119W 12N126W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 37N132W HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S 
ALONG 32N132W TO A BASE AT 24N127W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER 
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING W ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO A NARROW CREST NEAR 24N120W. 
DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W. UPPER DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 100W AND 120W IS ADVECTED 
N ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER WESTERN OLD 
MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA EVENTUALLY OVER THE DESERT SW 
CONUS. 
 
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E HAS WEAKENED TO AN 
OPEN TROUGH NEAR 20N125W AND IS EXPECTED TO LOSE IDENTITY IN 24 
HOURS. 

GAP WINDS...BRISK ELY TRADES IN THE W CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO 
BRIDGE THROUGH INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH ABOUT 30 HOURS 
THEN DECREASE. 

$$
NELSON