000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 86W N OF 7N AND HAS 
MOVED W 12 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. LITTLE CYCLONIC TURNING 
NOTED WITH MOSTLY A SURGE IN THE ELY WIND. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W N OF 7N HAS MOVED W AT 12 KT OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR 11N99W. THE 
ENHANCEMENT OF ITCZ CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DECREASING.
  
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 113W FROM 6N TO 14N WITH CYCLONIC TURNING 
NOTED NEAR 11N114W WITH LITTLE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 10N84W 11N96W 12N112W 10N130W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 83W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 103W ALSO 
FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 112W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 37N132W HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S 
ALONG 32N132W TO A BASE AT 21N123W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER 
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING W ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO A NARROW CREST NEAR 24N120W. 
DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W. UPPER DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 100W AND 120W IS ADVECTED 
N ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER WESTERN OLD 
MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA EVENTUALLY OVER THE DESERT SW 
CONUS...MONSOON FLOW. 
 
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E HAS WEAKENED TO AN 
OPEN TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO LOSE IDENTITY IN 24 HOURS. 

GAP WINDS...BRISK ELY TRADES IN THE W CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO 
BRIDGE THROUGH INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH ABOUT 30 HOURS 
THEN DECREASE. 

$$
NELSON