000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111001
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E NOW A LOW PRES 
CENTER 1007 MB AT 19N123W AT 0900 UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT.  DEEP 
CONVECTION HAS SUBSIDED AS IT ENCOUNTERED COOL SSTS...ADVERSE 
ENVIRON ALOFT AND DRY AIR MASS AHEAD. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 6N ALONG 96W MOVING W 15 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N TO 11N WITHIN 180 NM W OF AXIS AND   
OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 7N ALONG 111W MOVING W 15 KT HAS SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS CONVECTION FROM 9N TO 14W WITHIN 180 NM W OF AXIS.  
SYSTEM PRESENTLY UNDER FAVORABLE LIGHT SHEAR ALOFT BUT 
APPROACHES ADVERSE CONDITIONS AHEAD WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HRS.  

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...9N84W  11N96W 10N105W  11N111W 
9N119W  11N129W  8N140W.  IN ADDITION TO THAT CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 9N119W AND E OF 80W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ AXIS W OF 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING NW CORNER OF E PAC WITH 80 KT 
JET CORE ADVECTING MINOR AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE N OF 26N W OF 125W. 
JET TRACK LIKELY TO CARRY SWATH OF MOISTURE N OF 32N UPON 
APPROACHING CONTINENT.  REMAINDER BASIN W OF 12N W OF 123W UNDER 
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED AT 15N137W IS QUITE DRY 
AND THE CULPRIT OF CONSTRAINED ITCZ DEVELOPMENT W OF 123W.
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEPARATES RIDGE FROM DOWNSTREAM 
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO W.  UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO ITCZ FROM 100W TO 122W UNDER DOWNSTREAM 
RIDGE FEED CONVECTION ALONG AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVES. 

HIGH PRES CENTERED AT 28N123W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 21N110W EXCEPT 
WEAKENED BY THE DENT MADE BY REMNANTS OF T.D. 4-E.  NE TRADES 
HAVE BECOME VERY LIGHT WITH SEAS BELOW 6 FT.  WITH THE W-NW 
DRIFT OF REMNANTS OF T.D. 4-E IT WILL TAKE A WHILE BEFORE TRADES 
RECOVER INTO NORMALITY. 

...GAP WINDS...
STRONG TRADES FROM WRN CARIBBEAN CROSS INTO E PAC OVER GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO LIKELY TO PERSIST AS CARIBBEAN RIDGE STRENGTHENS NEXT 
48 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES