000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E 1007 MB AT 18.9N 123.0W AT 0300 UTC 
MOVING W AT 9 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
35 KT. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN 
COMPLETELY ABSENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND THE DISSIPATING 
DEPRESSION IS OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 23-24 
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE HAS FALLEN APART AND A COMEBACK APPEARS 
UNLIKELY...SO THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AT 0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 6N ALONG 95W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 8N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 99W. THE WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING SOME SHOWER 
ACTIVITY OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...8N85W 12N105W 13N117W 13N125W 
7N140W. BESIDES CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...  
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 106W AND 116W. THIS ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO A SFC 
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 110W/111W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 
133W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 16N135W
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING N TO 25N135W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA W OF 125W. SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ALOFT IS FROM 
THE ITCZ TO 22N W OF 125W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING 
ADVECTED THROUGH THE RIDGE N OF 22N W OF 125W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A 
JETSTREAM BRANCH OF 70 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS IT AXIS ALONG 122W/123W. MODERATE SW 
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE SHEARING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
4E. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 17N1118W...ANOTHER RIDGE 
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 
12N105W. THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO 
INCLUDING THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N110W TO 10N112W. 

HIGH PRES RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N140W TO 20N110W. BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITHIN THE RIDGE N 
OF 160N W OF 125W. 

...GAP WINDS...
STRONG TRADES OVER WRN CARIBBEAN CROSS OVER INTO E PAC ALONG 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH 20 KT E WIND LIKELY TO PERSIST AND SPREAD 
WESTWARD NEXT 48 HRS.

$$
GR