000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED TONIGHT NEAR THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER OF 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4E. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING 
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND A 
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL MOVING 
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT...BUT A GRADUAL SHIFT IN TRACK TO 
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 KT. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 8N ALONG 89W MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AND OVER EL SALVADOR.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...8N85W 9N105W 14N115W 11N125W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 
14N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W...AND WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 127W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE N OF 25N W OF 130W...OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 125W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL N OF THE 
AREA TO 32N122W TO A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 28N117W. THE 
TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 27N105W SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE AREA...INCLUDING THE SIERRA 
MADRE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 17N100W 
HELPING TO DEVELOP WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 
THE ITCZ AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM.

...GAP WINDS...
20 KT ELY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DUE TO 
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS 
FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
GR