000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 119.0W OR ABOUT 
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 2100 UTC. A 
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS 
ARE NEAR 30 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER. THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ON A SLOW 
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND 
AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST.    

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 6N ALONG 87W/88W MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...8N80W 8N100W 11N114W 9N130W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 101W AND 107W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 
11N BETWEEN 125W AND 131W. 

MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 117W AND 
119W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE N OF 25N W OF 130W...OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 125W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL N OF THE 
AREA TO 32N122W TO A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 28N116W. THE 
TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 26N106W SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE AREA...INCLUDING THE SIERRA 
MADRE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 15N98W 
HELPING TO DEVELOP WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 
THE ITCZ AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
PUERTO VALLARTA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS 
SYSTEM.

...GAP WINDS...
20 KT ELY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DUE TO 
THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 

$$
GR