000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081634 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUL 8 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WITH WAVE ALONG 12N133W 5N137.5W NEW TROPICAL WAVE N OF 4N ALONG 81W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. OTHER CONVECTION TIED TO THIS WAVE IS ALONG CARIBBEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING NE-SW FROM 17N114W TO 7N118W WITH WEAK LOW PRES ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N116W IS MOVING W ABOUT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO PART OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN 112W-118W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES HAS SOME CHANCE OF ORGANIZING INTO A MORE PRONOUNCED LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N115.5W 13N118.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 11N100W 16N100W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 12N133W TO 5N137.5W IS MOVING W ABOUT 13 KT. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXHIBITING AN APPARENT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 8N137W. THERE EXISTS SOME CHANCE FOR THIS WAVE TO BECOME MORE DEVELOPED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N80W 9N90W 9N100W 14N115W 8N127W 9N135W 8N140W 8N92W 10N103W 12N112W 10N120W 10N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W-103W...BETWEEN 119W-122W AND ALSO BETWEEN 136W-138W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-89W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 130W... MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS NOTED NW OF LINE 20N140W 30N122W E OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION W OF THE REGION NEAR 24N151W. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BE CHANNELED NEWD IN THIS FLOW. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE SPREADING WWD IS NOTED FROM 9N-20N W OF 136W...AND ALSO N OF 17N E OF 136W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE S OF 13N W OF 135W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ALONG 12N133W 5N137.5W. E OF 130W... MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NNW 17 KT IS NEAR 23N113W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE CIRCULATION TO 15N123W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING WNW 15-20 KT IS OVER SE MEXICO NEAR 18N100W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT N OF 15N E OF 122W...AND ALSO FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 130W-122W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH IS AIDING CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 17N109W WITH A RIDGE NE TO 21N108W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE CREST AND EXPANDING EWD TO 103W WHERE IT MERGES WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT REACHES E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EPAC N OF 4N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NUDGING NWD IS PRESENT S OF 4N. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS AS SHOWN BY SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS ARE OCCURRING S OF 8N E OF 103W. LIGHTER ELY FLOW EXISTING N OF 4N MAY ALLOW FOR ITCZ CONVECTION TO BE ENHANCE BY NEW TROPICAL WAVES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF OTHER TROPICAL EPAC LOWS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1032 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N140W MOVING SLOWLY N EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 30N130W 25N121W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N W OF 121W. A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH IS RESULTING IN NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT N OF 24N W OF 130W. THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. NE-E GAP WINDS OF 20 KT IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS...AND SPREAD WWD TO NEAR 93W. $$ AGUIRRE