000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 8 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W FROM 6N-18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 1008 MB 
LOW PRES ALONG WAVE NEAR 13N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 113W-120W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 131W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK 
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 7N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 134W-136W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N80W 9N95W 13N110W 10N122W 10N130W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 120W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 133W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE ITCZ HAS SPUN OUT ONE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ALONG 114W...AND A SMALLER CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION W OF A WAVE ALONG 131W. THE LOW NEAR 13N114W IS VERY
LARGE BUT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE
IN CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. 
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION READILY APPARENT FROM ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY NEAR 7N133W IS ABOVE THE SURFACE. VISUAL DATA SHOWED LOW 
LEVEL CUMULUS LINES BYPASSING THE CIRCULATION CENTER...SUGGESTING
A LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 8N135W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO 
DEVELOPMENT WITH EITHER SYSTEM BUT THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES IN THE 
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N114W APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ALBEIT AT A SLOW RATE.

A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N139W MOVING SLOWLY E HAS A 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 30N131W TO 25N122W. A MODERATE PRES 
GRADIENT S OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING FRESH NE TRADES IN NW PART 
OF DISCUSSION AREA. NLY SWELLS OF UP TO 9 FT RESULTING FROM 
STRONG WINDS N OF THE AREA REMAIN CONFINED TO THE AREA N OF 27N 
BETWEEN 120W-125W. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HRS. GAP WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT ON A DIURNAL CYCLE 
IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL