000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 7 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W FROM 6N-17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 1009 MB 
LOW PRES ALONG WAVE NEAR 13N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 110W-117W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 130W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK MID-LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 7N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 131W-136W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 9N80W 9N88W 13N106W 10N122W 
10N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 117W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 131W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS E OF 87W.

...DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE ITCZ HAS SPUN OUT ONE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ALONG 113W...AND A SMALLER CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION W OF A WAVE ALONG 130W. THE LOW NEAR 13N113W IS VERY
LARGE BUT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE
IN CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. 
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION READILY APPARENT FROM ANIMATED VISUAL 
METSAT IMAGERY NEAR 7N131W IS ABOVE THE SURFACE SINCE THE LOW 
LEVEL CUMULUS LINES ARE BYPASSING THE CIRCULATION CENTER E OF 
133W. IF THERE IS A LOW LEVEL CENTER...THE CUMULUS LINES SUGGEST 
SOMETHING NEAR 7N/8N AND 134W. NONE OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS
ARE DOING MUCH WITH EITHER SYSTEM...BUT THE BROAD ORGANIZATION IN
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N113W APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...BUT MOST LIKELY AT A SLOW RATE.

A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N139W MOVING SLOWLY HAS A 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 30N131W TO 25N122W. A MODERATE PRES 
GRADIENT S OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING FRESH NE TRADES IN NW PART 
OF DISCUSSION AREA. NLY SWELLS OF UP TO 9 FT RESULTING FROM 
STRONG WINDS N OF THE AREA REMAIN CONFINED TO THE AREA N OF 27N 
BETWEEN 120W-125W. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HRS. GAP WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT ON A DIURNAL CYCLE 
IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL