000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071647 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUL 7 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W/112W FROM 5N-16N IS MOVING W ABOUT 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS PART OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES THAT EXTENDS FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 105W-118W. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES MAY FORM ON THE WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HRS...AND TRACK WWD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-16N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W/126W S OF 13N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED NEAR 10N128W. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE CIRCULATION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 134W S OF 12N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE WITHIN 75 NM OF 7.5N132W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N81W 8N92W 10N103W 12N112W 10N120W 10N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W-117W...AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 131W-133W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 87W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 120W... MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS NOTED NW OF LINE 20N140W 30N120W E OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION W OF THE REGION NEAR 26N152W. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ IS BEING CHANNELED NEWD TO THE SE OF THE SW FLOW...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED FROM 9N-20N W OF 131W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS ACTIVE BETWEEN E OF 131W UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH IS ALSO ALLOWING FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE SEEN E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W/126W. E OF 120W... MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING WSW 15 KT IS OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A TROUGH SW TO 22N115W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING W 15-20 KT IS OVER SE MEXICO NEAR 18N98W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT N OF 15N E OF 120W. MOISTURE HAS SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS DIFFLUENCE TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH\IS AIDING CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IS BEING DRAWN NWD TOWARDS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES TIED TO THIS WAVE. WITH LIGHTER UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS PRESENT HERE...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE INTO A MORE PRONOUNCED LOW OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N137W MOVING SLOWLY E EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 30N131W 25N122W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N W OF 121W. A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH IS RESULTING IN NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT NW OF A LINE FROM 21N140W TO 30N120W. THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. NLY SWELLS OF UP TO 9 FT RESULTING FROM STRONG WINDS N OF THE AREA ARE MIGRATING SWD INTO THE NE CORNER OF THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W-125W. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. GAP WINDS OF 20 KT IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN 48 HRS AS GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES ALONG THE ITCZ AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NRN CARIBBEAN STRENGTHENS. $$ AGUIRRE