000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 7 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W 
AND 113W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 122W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 132W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF 8N130W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N78W 8N92W 12N114W 8N127W 9N132W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
ITCZ FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING MORE ACTIVE ACROSS EPAC AS
WEAK CIRCULATIONS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 9N123W AND
10N109W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STEADILY INCREASING AND A MONSOON
TROUGH PATTERN IS DEVELOPING E OF 113W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 16N96W IS PULLING NORTHWESTWARD AWAY 
FROM THE ITCZ AXIS...ALLOWING MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND 
PERSIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS ARE BROADLY DIVERGENT W OF 100W S OF ANTICYCLONE CENTERED 
NEAR 21N120W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA IS OVER A BROAD RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL 
NE 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS...IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTING MARINE 
CONDITIONS. GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
ARE PRODUCING LARGE SWELLS JUST N OF THE AREA BETWEEN 120W-130W. 
S OF 32N IN THIS AREA SEAS DIMINISH RAPIDLY AND ARE IN THE 8 TO 
10 FT RANGE WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. GAP WINDS 
IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN 24-36 HOURS 
AS CARIBBEAN HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.

$$
MUNDELL