000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062154 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUL 6 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 111W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 121W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 124W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 132W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 10N WITHIN 240 NM E OF WAVE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N78W 10N97W 10N131W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 10N E OF 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 129W. ...DISCUSSION... ITCZ FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING MORE ACTIVE ACROSS EPAC AS WEAK CIRCULATIONS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 9N121W AND 9N107W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STEADILY INCREASING AND A MONSOON TROUGH PATTERN IS DEVELOPING E OF 100W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 16N96W IS PULLING NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE ITCZ AXIS...ALLOWING MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BROADLY DIVERGENT W OF 100W S OF ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 21N120W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS OVER A BROAD RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTING MARINE CONDITIONS. GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ARE PRODUCING LARGE SWELLS JUST N OF THE AREA BETWEEN 120W-130W. S OF 32N IN THIS AREA SEAS DIMINISH RAPIDLY AND ARE IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. GAP WINDS IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN 24-36 HOURS AS CARIBBEAN HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. $$ MUNDELL