000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061632
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 6 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT.  SCATTERED 
CONVECTION MERGED WITH ITCZ SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT.  SCATTERED 
CONVECTION MERGED WITH ITCZ MOVING INTO AREA OF FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 132W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  8N82W  10N101W  9N111W  11N119W  8N126W  
10N131W  8N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
150 NM S OF AXIS E OF 94W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
90 NM OF WAVE ALONG 103W FROM 8N TO 12N.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 13N WITHIN 180 NM OF WAVE ALONG 
119W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS W OF 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM 26N140W TO 12N131W HAS DRY AIR MASS 
WITHIN 360 NM OF AXIS RESTRICTING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT W OF 130W. 
SWATH OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE APPROACHING WRN EDGE OF BASIN NEAR 
20N EVENTUALLY DISPLACING DRY AIR MASS LATE IN OUTLOOK PERIOD.

CENTER OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 21N119W ALSO MAINTAINS DRY 
AIR MASS N OF 17N W OF 108W...BUT PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR 
ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES TRAVELING S OF 17N.  RIDGE PRODUCES 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN W OF TROPICAL WAVE AT 119W WHICH 
COULD HELP WAVE INTENSIFICATION INTO TROPICAL LOW PRES WITH 
INCREASING WINDS WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER AS PER GFS 
SOLUTION.  

CYCLONIC CENTER OVER ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 16N95W ALSO 
PRODUCING MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR 100W PARTIALLY ENHANCING 
CONVECTION OVER TROPICAL WAVE AT 103W AND ITCZ.  SECOND CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 2N75W WITH LIGHT E-NE FLOW OVER SRN PARTS OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA PERMITS SOME DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION JUST S OF PANAMA 
AND COSTA RICA.  

AT THE SURFACE...PAC HIGH PRES CENTER 1031 MB AT 34N143W HAS 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 15N115W. RIDGE MAINTAINS FLOW OF STRONG 
TRADES W OF 125W AND N OF 10N. 

GAP WINDS ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN 48 
HRS AS CARIBBEAN HIGH PRES WEAKENS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL S WINDS AND SWELLS S OF 10N W OF 120W. 

$$
WALLY BARNES