000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 6 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
CONVECTION MAINLY W OF WAVE AXIS WITH NO ORGANIZATION. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 131W S OF 18N MOVING W 5-10 KT. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 7N80W 10N101W 9N104W 11N112W 9N118W 
11N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A 
LINE FROM 5N77W TO 7N79W TO 8N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 
NM OF A LINE FROM 7N86W TO 9N97W TO 7N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W. LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 114W TO 126W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N129W TO 8N135W TO 
8N140W. 


...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CENTERED 
OVER THE SW CONUS NEAR 35N115W REMAINS STATIONARY. WEAK 
VORTICITY CENTERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE. ONE WAS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR THE CA COAST AT 36N124W. 
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING WAS OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE 
AREA NEAR 23N138W AND STATIONARY. A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER 
EXTREME SRN MEXICO WAS NEAR 16N94W AND STATIONARY. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION WAS OCCURING APPROXIMATELY 225 NM E AND W OF THE 
CENTER. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT TRPL WAVES WERE NEAR 100W..112W 
AND 130W ALL MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE FIRST TWO HAD SCATTERED 
CONVECTION WITH THEM BUT AS YET NO ORGANIZATION. THE PACIFIC 
RIDGE CENTER AT 1026 MB WAS NEAR 33N137W WITH IT'S AXIS 
EXTENDING SE TO 15N115W. THE RIDGE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR NE TRADES 
W OF 125W AND N OF 10N. QUIKSCAT AND SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW 
WINDS MOSTLY 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT. BOTH SHOW CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION S OF 10N. 

LATER DAY 1 THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE 
ALONG 115W EXTENDING S TO 18N. WEAK VORTICITY CENTER WILL MOVE 
SW OVER MID BAJA COULD ENHANCE TSTM ACTIVITY. MID LEVEL TROUGH 
ALONG 138W STATIONARY. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 WINDS ALONG 
THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE PACIFIC RIDGE MAINLY W 
OF 125W. GAP WINDS NEAR PAPAGAYO NE TO E TO 20 KT. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS INCREASE SOME E OF 90W TO 20 KT. CONVECTIVE 
AREAS ALONG ITCZ COULD ENHANCE SLY WINDS S OF 10N W OF 90W AND 
THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW PRES NEAR 9N121W LATER DAY 1.

FOR DAY 2 WHILE THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS 
STATIONARY..THE SRN PORTION SHIFTS WWD TO 20N135W. WEAK 
VORTICITY CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ABOUT THE RIDGE 
PERIMETER WITH MAINLY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE CENTER REMAINS NEAR 35N140W WITH 
IT'S AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 15N115W. GFS MODEL STILL HINTS AT 
ACTIVE LOW CENTERS ALONG ITCZ WHICH COULD ENHANCE SURFACE WINDS 
WHERE THE LOWS PUSH AGAINST THE RIDGE. ANYWAY LITTLE CHANGE TO 
OVERALL WINDS WITH BAJA WINDS REMAINING LIGHT.

$$
RRG