000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 6 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT. CONVECTION HAS 
BEEN RACING WWD AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND STARTING TO ERUPT E OF THE 
WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY 
FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 105W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. A SMALL LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS TRYING TO ORGANIZE NEAR 8N111W...AND A WEAK 
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION FURTHER W NEAR 9N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS RACING WWD MORE THAN 240 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS 
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 115W-122W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 130W S OF 18N MOVING W 5-10 KT. EXCEPT FOR A 
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED NEAR 12N131W...THIS WAVE LACKS 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 10N94W 10N132W 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W 
AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
150 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W-106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 88W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER ERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND 
MEXICO WHICH IS SLOWLY MOVING W...PRODUCING NLY DIVERGENT FLOW 
FROM SRN MEXICO SWD. THE FLOW IS W/NWLY E OF 99W AND ELY W OF 
99W...FOSTERING AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE 
BETWEEN 93W-107W AIDED BY TROPICAL WAVE. A CUT-OFF UPPER TROUGH 
IS LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO AND IS PULLING SOME DRIER AIR SWD 
ACROSS THE W SIDE OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED JUST SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N112W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W TO NEAR 12N130W. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW S OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS E OF 130W WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL 
TROPICAL WAVES. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT CLIPS 
THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH 
ALSO EXTENDS INTO THE TROPICS ALONG 135W S OF 20N. A LARGE AREA 
OF UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 125W DUE TO CONFLUENCE BETWEEN 
THESE TROUGHS.

$$
MUNDELL